Posts tagged black swan

LinkedIn Editor’s Pick: From Black Swans to Gray Rhinos

LinkedIn Black Swan Gray Rhino

September 2, 2016

The European Union has known since the creation of the euro that the currency was bound for trouble if did not create workable ways to adjust for the wide differences among its national economies. Yet well into its second decade, its failure to do so threatens the currency’s future. The deadly defects in ignition switches and airbags at General Motors and Takata, and the emissions test fixing at Volkswagen were hardly a secret inside the companies, which covered them up instead of correcting them. Despite overwhelming scientific evidence of climate change caused by human activity, temperatures keep rising, with this July marking the hottest month ever recorded.

The reasons are different in each case, but the pattern is the same: humans consistently fail to respond to looming dangers, at astronomical costs in lives, money, reputation, and lost opportunities. Once you start looking at how many crises began with clear but essentially ignored warning signals, it becomes strikingly clear how often we miss opportunities to head off predictable problems.

Too many people take for granted that we cannot react in time to change the course of the disasters even when they are right in front of us. It’s well past time to challenge this assumption.

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Seeking Alpha: From Black Swans to Gray Rhinos

Was the Brexit vote a highly improbable black swan or an obvious gray rhino?

Read my thoughts on Seeking Alpha July 1, 2016, to find out.

SA Black Swan to Gray Rhino

 

The Gray Rhino on The Exchange

I sat down with Reuters Breakingviews US Editor Jeffrey Goldfarb for a conversation on The Exchange about why it’s more important to look for gray rhinos than black swans and how to keep from getting trampled. The interview aired June 23, 2016. Click the image below to view the video.

With Reuters Breakingviews US Editor Jeffrey Goldfarb on The Exchange

With Reuters Breakingviews US Editor Jeffrey Goldfarb on The Exchange

 

Book Q&A With Deborah Kalb

Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 5.09.32 PMI chatted recently about THE GRAY RHINO with book blogger extraordinaire Deborah Kalb. Read the interview HERE.

Observer Interview: Into the Wild

It’s time to pay attention to “gray rhinos,” says policy expert Michele Wucker.

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 at 8.31.23 PMParker Richards interviewed me for this piece in the New York Observer, published April 2, 2016. “It’s not just a book, it’s a new way of thinking about the world’s problems,” he wrote. Read the full interview HERE.

Books

The Gray Rhino

How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore

Buy the book

Why the Cocks Fight

Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola

Buy the book

Lockout

Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right

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